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ENGTRANSACTIONS 2, 12 pages - Article ID: ENGT-2106122112348



Prediction for Monthly Rainfall of Six Meteorological Regions and TRNC (Case Study: North Cyprus)

Authors

Mir Mohammad Ali Malakoutian 1*, Yas Malakoutian 2, Pooria Mostafapour 3, Sina Ziafat Dost Abed 4


Department of Architecture and the Built Environment, University of the West of England, Bristol, United Kingdom
Department of Art and Architecture, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
Department of Business, The University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, USA
Department of Civil engineering, Islamic Azad University, Arak Branch , Arak, Iran
ABSTRACT

This paper works with the monthly rainfall of six meteorological regions and TRNC (North Cyprus) as a whole for the hydrologic years from September 1975 to August 2014 period. In order to predict 5 years ahead of the yearly rainfall of each meteorological region and TRNC, three different time series models (Markov, Auto-regressive (AR) and Holt-Winter Multiplicative) were used. For this reason, the rainfall of hydrologic years from 1975-76 to 2003-04 were used for training and from 2004-05 to 2013-14 were used for forecasting (testing) the trained data. The best representative time-series model for each region was selected based on the standardized averages of four statistical error checking measures (MAPE, MAD, MSE and RMSE). The selected model for each region was then used to predict (estimate) the rainfall for five successive hydrologic years ahead from 2014-15 to 2018-19.

Forecasted data; predict; rainfall; time series models; TRNC.
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